Florida Primary Predictions
55DEMOCRATS:
The Democratic race in Florida is definitely less dramatic and less important to the nomination than the GOP's race is in the Sunshine State. But the question is not: will Obama defeat Hillary in FL, but how close of a second place finish will he pull off? Since the DNC stripped the FL Dem. primary of its delegates last year, the Democratic candidates have made less of a play here. So expect an easy victory for Hillary Clinton here in FL tonight. Super Tuesday should be a tough fight between Clinton and Obama, but I expect Hillary to pull it out on Feb. 5th-- the demographics in most of the Super Tuesday states aren't like those in South Carolina.
PREDICTION:
1. Hillary Clinton (52%)
2. Barack Obama (33%)
3. John Edwards (15%)
REPUBLICANS:
In Florida, this race is the one everyone in FL (and the national GOP voters) is paying more attention to because all of Florida's 57 delegates will be granted to the winner of the FL GOP primary. This race has become much more intriguing because it is coming down to a tight two-race fight to the finish between Mitt Romney and John McCain, who now in the national polls are well ahead of the rest of the pack vying for the Republican nomination. A victory for either man could pay huge dividends for their prospects of winning the Super Tuesday states and probably their party's nomination. A win for Romney means momentum going into Super Tuesday where his vast financial resources (that would be boosted by a FL win) could put him into a competitive two-man race with McCain in the Super Tuesday states and probably in the races to follow. On the other hand, a win for McCain would solidify him as the GOP frontrunner (he leads in the national polls and is ahead in most of the states voting on Super Tuesday) and probably propel him to victory on Super Tuesday that would enable him to claim the Republican nomination. Winning in Florida, a closed primary where only Republicans can vote, would cast doubt on the belief by some (read: the Republican establishment) that McCain cannot win without the independents that got him over the top in NH and SC (though McCain effectively tied Romney and Huckabee among Republicans in NH and SC respectively). This race will be close, but McCain will pull it out, after getting the endorsement of Charlie Crist, the popular Governor of Florida. McCain, since that endorsement, has led Mitt in nearly all the polls. John McCain certifies his hold on the GOP nomination tonight.
PREDICTION:
1. John McCain (34%)
2. Mitt Romney (32%)
3. Rudy Giuliani (14%)
4. Mike Huckabee (13%)
